Arkansans are more apt to catch a glimpse of Santa and his reindeer on Christmas Day this year than they are to see any falling snow, weather forecasters said.
It's rare that the state experiences a white Christmas, although snow and ice blanketed much of Arkansas on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day just two years ago. Jessieville in Garland County received 15 inches of snow then, and Paragould received 10.5 inches.
That won't happen this year, said John Lewis, a National Weather Service forecaster in North Little Rock.
"There's a nonexistent chance," Lewis said. "Some areas north of Arkansas could get some light snow, but it won't hold."
AccuWeather, a private forecasting company in Pennsylvania, said heavy snowfalls are expected in the Great Lakes region and in the northeastern edge of the United States on Christmas Eve, which will create major holiday traffic delays.
There's a 75 percent or greater chance of at least an inch of snow on the ground in the northern Midwest and along the Canadian border states in the northeast, said Dan Kottlowski, an AccuWeather meteorologist.
"Some areas will always see a white Christmas," he said. "It would be more of an oddball occurrence if there was no snow on the ground in Minnesota on Christmas than snow on the ground in Arkansas."
Originally, AccuWeather forecasters said Arkansas had less than a 15 percent chance of seeing any snowfall on Christmas Day.
They scaled that back even further Friday, Kottlowski said.
"The temperatures will warm up in Arkansas [on] Tuesday and Wednesday," he said. "Even if you get a stray flurry, it won't stick."
Lewis said rain will fall across most of Arkansas on Monday and Tuesday before skies clear and temperatures climb. Little Rock is forecast to have temperatures in the mid-50s on Christmas Day.
Since 1875, when the National Weather Service began keeping records on Arkansas, it's snowed only nine times on the holiday. Before the 2012 snowstorm, the previous measurable Christmas Day snowfall was in 1926, when 2-4 inches fell by that evening.
Light snows were recorded in 2009, 1975, 1939, 1935, 1918, 1914 and 1887.
Although Betty Eckart, owner of Pine Grove Christmas Tree Farms in Charleston, can appreciate the ambience of a snow-covered tree farm, she prefers that the frozen precipitation stay away during the holidays.
"Snow on the ground kind of hurts us," she said. "People are barely getting out on the roads. They don't come and get Christmas trees if it's bad."
She said people used to go to her farm in early December to pick out a tree, but since the 2012 storm, many have purchased trees the weekend after Thanksgiving.
"We have a few people come in on the 23rd or 24th [of December] to get their trees, but nearly everyone who will get one has theirs up by then."
Ashton Dyer, manager of Meadors Lumber Co. in Alma, banks on snowy days in western Arkansas. His store sells snow sleds as Christmas gifts.
"Anytime there's a prediction of snow, we run out of sleds," she said.
The store has about 30 in stock and, even though there's virtually no chance for snow on the holiday, Dyer isn't too worried about selling them.
People "buy them as Christmas presents. They know it will snow sometime this winter."
Forecasters suggest not putting the sleds away prematurely.
They're keeping their eyes on another system forming in southwest Texas that's expected to reach Arkansas and clash with a surge of cold air from the north by New Year's Eve.
"That system looks impressive," Kottlowski said. "You will get hit with some really cold air. It will be significantly colder, and if there's still moisture around -- there's your chance for snow, Arkansas.
"Don't give up on winter just because it doesn't snow there on Christmas," he said. "Reality will set in, and when it does, it will hit with a vengeance."
State Desk on 12/21/2014