WASHINGTON -- Former President Bill Clinton told a group of Georgetown University students that Arkansas has changed so much politically, he's not sure he'd be elected governor there today.
It's an assessment several Arkansas political scientists share.
"I was governor a long time," Clinton said while answering questions after giving a speech earlier this month. "The people of my native state were good enough to elect me five times. Based on recent events, I don't know if I could win again down there."
Arkansas political science professors said the political climate has changed in the past few elections. But, they were divided on whether the change is permanent and what it might mean for the 2016 campaign of Hillary Clinton.
Clinton was governor of Arkansas from 1979 to 1981 and from 1983 to 1992. The Democrat won the 1978 general election with 63.4 percent of the vote. After losing in 1980 to Republican Frank White with only 48.1 percent of the vote, Clinton returned in 1982 to beat White with 54.7 percent. He was re-elected three times, receiving 62.6 percent in 1984, 63.9 percent in 1986 and 57.5 percent in 1990.
Hendrix College politics professor Jay Barth said Bill Clinton may have been reflecting on campaigning for state Democrats in the fall. Clinton returned to the state repeatedly, including crisscrossing the state for a series of rallies the weekend before the election.
"He really got just how difficult a state this was and how different a state this was than the one he ran in so many times," Barth, who has also run for office as a Democrat, said. "Whether he himself has the talent to supersede that is a good question."
In 2014, Tom Cotton, a Republican from Dardanelle, won the U.S. Senate seat over incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor, a Democrat from Little Rock, with 56.5 percent. Asa Hutchinson was elected governor over former Clinton driver Mike Ross with 55.4 percent.
Arkansas political experts including the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville's Diane Blair, who died in 2000, have long said that the presence of Bumpers, Pryor and Clinton in Arkansas politics kept the state from turning red along with the rest of the South, said Hal Bass, a political science professor at Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia.
Arkansas Democrats were able to convince voters that they weren't like the national Democratic party, Bass said.
"The capacity of the Southern Democrats to make that separation clear has weakened over time. It was still a very credible claim to be made back in Clinton's day here," Bass said. "I think guys like Mark Pryor and Mike Ross had a much rougher time trying to make the claim."
Bass said Arkansas' trend to the right is ingrained for a while.
"There has been a particularly compelling alienation from the national Democrats under Barack Obama. That's likely to lessen... but I think the foundations of opposition to the national Democrats, again, going back decades are pretty firmly established in the Arkansas cultural and political psyche," Bass said.
University of Arkansas at Fayetteville Professor Janine Parry said Clinton is probably right about how he would fare. Parry is a political science professor who has headed the annual Arkansas Poll since its inception in October 1999.
"Politics in Arkansas have been so deeply nationalized on almost every level in the last three election cycles," Parry said. "This is a whole different ballgame. It's the national messaging, I think perhaps in this particular climate, that would make it difficult for any Democrat to win a high profile [race], even Bill Clinton."
Parry said Arkansas politics have historically been about a candidate's charisma.
"Any Democrat who has even one foot in reality understands that they'll never go back to the dominance they enjoyed for 100 years," Parry said. "But, their hope is that it's "just an anti-Obama thing" and once well-financed Republican allies can no longer beat that drum so easily, for every office at every level, that some of the no-partyism, personality based politics of Arkansas would have the potential to re-emerge."
Parry said she's not sure a Republican shift has happened. She said in 17 years of conducting the Arkansas Poll she has always asked people about which party they identify with, and for the first dozen years those identifying as independents exceeded either party.
"Then in 2010, those independents pick up. Republicans and Democrats both lose support just a tiny bit and the percent of people leaning independent grows tremendously," she said.
Parry said that should be a glimmer of hope for Democrats and a reminder to be vigilant for Republicans.
"Long term this state will probably remain competitive with a Republican lean," Parry said. "I should say there is a potential it remains competitive. It depends on whether or not the Democrats can keep recruiting and whether or not the Republicans decide to coast."
Some Arkansas Democrats have said they are encouraged by the idea of having the Clinton name back at the top of a ticket.
While Hillary Clinton was raised in Illinois, she taught at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville, helped overhaul the state education system during her 12 years as Arkansas's first lady and also worked as a lawyer at the Rose Law Firm in Little Rock.
The 2016 Clinton campaign is already gearing up to fight for the state. Last week campaign spokesmen announced that Evan Tanner will organize Arkansas' grassroots Democrats, as part of the campaign's 50 state effort.
Tanner referred questions to the Clinton campaign, which did not respond Monday.
Parry said the former Arkansas governor probably wouldn't be elected in the state's current political climate, but that assertion shouldn't be applied to the state's former first lady's presidential bid, saying Arkansans often vote differently at the state and national levels.
"Hillary Clinton wouldn't be a test of that [assertion], because her political personality is very different, she's the policy wonk candidate, not the grip and grin [candidate] and it's presidential politics. It's different than state politics," she said.
Hillary Clinton's time living in Arkansas gives her a core of support that many other Democrats wouldn't have, but the state's electoral votes are more likely go to a Republican, Bass said. The last time Arkansans supported a non-Southern Democrat was when John Kennedy received 50.18 percent of the vote in 1960.
"It's going to be a very, very tough row to hoe," Bass said. "She can make a better race for Arkansas' electoral votes than any other non-Southern Democrat could make. I still think it's going to be very difficult in today's new polarized climate."
Barth said with the "tectonic shift" toward Republicans in recent elections, the Clinton name may not be enough to buoy Hillary Clinton in 2016.
"I think it is a very, very, very long shot," Barth said. "Hillary Clinton has been away from the state for a while, I think she is very much seen as a national Democrat and she's a national Democrat with ties to the Obama administration."
Republican Party of Arkansas spokesman Issac Foley said the state party sees Arkansas as solidly red.
"If Bill Clinton isn't sure he could win Arkansas today what would make Hillary Clinton think that she'll be competitive?" he said.
Arkansas House Democratic Leader Eddie Armstrong, D-North Little Rock, said even in a tough political climate, Arkansans would turn out to support Bill Clinton. That support could extend to the former secretary of state if her campaign works for it, he said.
"I think he's maybe a little harder on himself then he should be," Armstrong said. "There's only one Bill Clinton."
Metro on 04/28/2015