Clinton in uphill fight in Arkansas, most say

When Hillary Rodham Clinton last visited Arkansas as a presidential candidate running against Barack Obama, a Democrat was in the Governor's Mansion, and Democrats held all of the state's other constitutional offices.

At an event like Saturday's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in North Little Rock, there would have been plenty of prominent Democratic officeholders to acknowledge in the audience. Many of them faced no Republican opposition back then.

Even after the 2008 elections, the Arkansas House of Representatives had 72 Democrats and 28 Republicans. The state Senate had 27 Democrats and eight Republicans. Both of Arkansas' U.S. senators and three of its four U.S. representatives were Democrats.

But things have changed.

Janine Parry, a political science professor at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville, said Republican success in all sectors of Arkansas politics has transformed the political landscape since 2008.

"That was a totally different world. In 2008, the Republicans didn't run for three of the four U.S. House seats. They didn't put up a candidate," Parry said. "I think you'd be hard-pressed to find any state so dramatically transformed in this short of period of time at any point in the country, at any time."

The shift from Democratic blue to Republican red, however, may have started in the 2000 election, the year Arkansas voters opted for Texas Gov. George W. Bush instead of Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee.

The last Democratic presidential candidate to win in Arkansas, Parry pointed out, was Bill Clinton in 1996.

Over the past few election cycles, Democrats have lost their dominance in state politics. Since the 2014 elections, Republicans now hold all of the constitutional offices and all of the state's congressional offices, and had majorities in the Arkansas House and Senate.

Parry said it's too early for Hillary Clinton to write off Arkansas as a supporter, but the odds are not in her favor.

"They're not willing to concede it yet. But [Saturday's dinner was] really about generating excitement, about getting those Arkansas loyalists to help her where she can win, and that's in people power and money," Parry said. "That's what it's about. It's about getting folks excited and rewarding those who have supported her and have supported the Clintons for decades."

Democratic officials, however, say they're hopeful that their party will fare better in 2016. A ballot headed by Clinton -- a former Arkansas first lady and a former Rose Law Firm partner in Little Rock -- will prove beneficial for Democrats in the state, they predict.

Former Gov. Mike Beebe said Saturday night that it's possible for Clinton to win in Arkansas, despite recent Democratic setbacks, but she'll need to work to win voters over.

"She has to connect. Arkansans will vote for you if they feel comfortable with you, believe in you and it can override whatever the flavor of the day might be. And I'm living proof of that," he said.

Beebe won re-election in 2010, claiming 55 percent of the vote and carrying all 75 Arkansas counties, on a night when many other Democrats were defeated.

Connecting with voters remains key for Democrats in the state in 2016, Beebe said. "If that doesn't happen, right now the tide is running red. So it would be an uphill battle. So the key for her is to connect."

Standing in line to get into Verizon Arena, Clinton supporters and Democrats had differing opinions on whether Clinton can win in Arkansas.

Mike Hathorn of Rogers said he was at Saturday night's event to support Clinton because he's worried about the nation's future.

Even in light of Republican gains in Arkansas since 2008, Hathorn said he was optimistic.

"Anything is possible. The right forces have to come together, and basically Democrats have to get out and vote. ... Be organized and ready," he said. "I think she's going to surprise some people."

Matilda Buchanan of Little Rock said she knows the state has "turned red," but she thinks there is still a lot of ardent support for Clinton.

"The other side won [in Arkansas in 2012]," Buchanan said. "But there are still a lot of us who think correctly."

A few younger Arkansans at Saturday's event said they understand that Clinton is historically significant in Arkansas, but they know her more as U.S. secretary of state or as a U.S. senator from New York.

When Will Simpson, 23, and Grant Addison, 22, were asked if they thought Clinton could win in Arkansas in a general election, they both answered in unison, "No."

Simpson said he thought it would be incredible if Clinton could get within 15 points of victory in Arkansas.

Andrea Zekis of Little Rock moved to Arkansas from Iowa in 2005. She said the former first lady is returning to a very different Arkansas and the political landscape has changed even in the 10 years Zekis has lived in the state.

"Clinton has done a lot for Arkansas in the past," Zekis said. "I hope people remember it."

Metro on 07/19/2015